icon 0
icon TOP UP
rightIcon
icon Reading History
rightIcon
icon Log out
rightIcon
icon Get the APP
rightIcon

Complete State of the Union Addresses from 1790 to 2006

Chapter 2 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Word Count: 10280    |    Released on: 06/12/2017

conomic collapse after the war. These predictions have not been borne out. On the contrary, the record of econ

orts to speed reconversion. But neither the danger of a postwar inflation nor of a subsequent collapse in production and employment is yet overcome. We must

erious gaps in our statistical information. Certain tendencies are, however, fairly clear and recognition of them should serve as background for the consideration of next year's F

zation of the armed forces will proceed faster than the increase in civilian employment opportunities. Even if substantial further withdrawals from the labor market occur, unemployment will

s resulting from the war. These extraordinary demands and shortages may lead to a s

extraordinary demand for other durable goods, for the replenishment of inventories, and for exports may be satisfied earlier. No backlog of demand can exist very long in the face of our tremendous productive capacity. We must expect again

CIES--IMMEDIATE

read limited supplies equitably by rationing, price controls, increased taxes, savings bond campaigns, and credit controls. Now, with the su

ime industries in the Western States and in the South would, in my judgment, add to existing production and markets rather than merely bring about a shifting of production. I

own businesses. The establishment and development of efficient small business ventures, I be

building materials, and consumers' durable goods. The critical situation makes continued rent control, price control, and priorities, allocations, and inventory controls absolutely esse

e must look forward to a long-range program

ional unemployment. In the present period of transition we must deal with such temporary unemployment as results from the fact that demobilization will proceed faster than reconversion or industrial expansion. Such temporary

h of reconversion and expansion is the

, and the wage and price policies which they develop

is very direct and personal because working conditions, wages, and p

use on management rests the responsibility fo

markets. Good business means more jobs and better wages. In this age of cooperation and

ld address themselves. No government policy can make men understand each other, agree, and

ng of public opinion, will assist labor and management to resolve their disa

standard of living. Management especially must realize that if labor is to work wholeheartedly fo

tial wage increases are good business for business because they assure a large market for their products; substantial wage increases are good business for labor because they increase labor's standard of living; s

ts throughout the Nation since VJ-day. It is estimated that about 6 million workers, or more than 20 percent of all employees in nonagricultural and nongovernmental establishments, have rece

threat and has assisted in settling about 1,300 disputes where strikes were threatened which involved about 500,000 workers. Only wo

industries and would have seemed to us major

nite success, and it is to be expected that this success will con

version must feel a deep concern about the number of major strikes now in pro

ng the threat of work stoppages in Nation-wide industries without sacrificing the fundamental

ave ever accomplished in peacetime. Business can in the future pay higher wages and sell for lower prices than ever be

, wage structures that are fair to labor, allow for necessary business in

and slackens, we shall once again face the deflationary dangers which beset this and other countries during the 1930's. Prosperity can be ass

and headlong depressions. We must not let a year or two of prosperity lull us into a false feelin

se there will be alternatives. We must choose the alternatives which will best measure up to our need for maintaining production and employment in the future. We must never lose sight

workers, and professional people-in the hands of our citizens. We want to keep it that way. Ho

th of the Nation. There is no other agency that can. No other organization has the scope or the authority, nor is any other agency accountable, to all

e adopt this year and from now on will determine our ability to achieve our objectives. We must continue to pay particular attention to our fiscal, monetary, and tax policy, programs to aid business--especially sma

business investment or to discourage it--have a vital bearing on this question. It is affected also by regulations on consumer credit and by

ay we time the exercise of our traditional and legitimate governmenta

in the accompanying Fifth Quarterly Report of t

ON HERETOFOR

TILL

f the United States in the reconversion and postwar period, I ha

w--of these recommendations have been enacted into law by the Congress. Most of them have not. I here reiterate some of them, and discuss

tion of stoppages of work in Nationwide industries after collective bargaining and conc

as the Senate bill now in conference between the Senate

nce benefits for unemployed workers now provided by t

Employment Practice Act--as recom

mount of minimum wages now provided by law-

nsive program for scientific research--a

and medical care program--as recom

ram of universal training--as rec

or all Government employees in all branches of the G

in the event of the death or incapacity or disqualification of the

on of the armed services--as recom

e and control of atomic energy--as r

in the Federal Government for a period at least up to J

nces for veterans in line with increases for civ

s for their period of military service--a

surance--as recommended b

d abroad--as recommended by me on September 6, 1945. I further recommend that this

materials in which the United States is naturally d

port legislation-as recommend

nson Act on foreign loans--as reco

the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin

S IN SPECI

on of Price

following President Roosevelt's "hold the line" order and in the face of the greatest pressures which this country has ever seen, the cost o

efforts would have been fruitless if they had not had the solid support of the great masses of our people. The Co

rous experience following World War I. Then the very restricted wartime controls were lifted too quickly, and as a result prices and rents

ory losses amounted to billions of dollars. Farm income dropped by one-half. Factory pay rolls dropped 40 percent, and nearly one-fifth of all our ind

price line until the production of goods caught up with the tremendous demands. Since then

been pressing hard against the price ceilings. The prices of real estate, which cannot now be controlled under the law, are rising rapidly. Commercial rents ar

ich can be met by the vast majority of our people. Full production is the greatest weapon against inflation, but until we c

re disturbed by the demands made by several busi

med some are doing--in anticipation of higher prices which would follow the end of price controls, we shall inevitably slow down production and create needless unemployment. On the other hand, t

olicy of the Government on the subject. Tenants and housewives,

dly as we can do so. The steps that we have already taken in many

ntrol for many months to come. The inflationary pressures on prices and rents, with relatively few exceptions, are now at an all-time peak. U

y has a clear right to know where the Congress stands on this all-important problem. Any uncertainty now as to whether the act will be extended give

posed should either be eliminated or modified to the point where it is nearly useless. The Congress has a clear

d as soon as possible adopt legislation continuing rent and

od sub

e Price Control Act. In September we were hopeful that the inflationary pressures would by this time have begun to diminish. We were particularly hop

winter and spring months, and eliminated almost completely by June 30 of this year. It was our feeling that the food subsidi

decline in food prices has not occurred, nor is it likely to occur for many months to come. This

last fall; milk will increase from 1 to 2 cents a quart; bread will increase about 1 cent a loaf; sugar will increase over 1 cent a pound; cheese, in addition to the increase of 4 cents now planned for the latter part of this

st make it clear to the Congress that, in my opinion, it would be

ur farmers, in particular, ha

hs there has been no group which has fought any harder in support of the Government's price control program. I am confident that, if the facts are plac

pecifically to certain standards. A very proper requirement, in my opinion, would be that subsidies

ion of War

will now expire, unless further extended, on June 30, 1946. This act is the basis for priority and inventory

possible. However, we know that there will continue to be shortages of certain materials caused by the war even after June 30, 1946. It is important

ord to wait until just before the act expires next June. To wait would cause the contro

usiness and

nt practical demonstrations of opportunity in a democratic free society. A great many veterans and workers with new skills and experie

sses. Nine out of every ten concerns fall into this category, and 45 percent of all workers are employed by

nd services that the Nation can produce. It encourages the competition that keeps our free enterprise economy vigorous and expanding. Small business, because of its flexibility,

aging small-business initiative and originali

ory. The work of the Smaller War Plants Corporation is being carried on in peacetime by the Federal Loan Agency a

te and public financial resource

agement problems. This will help equalize competitive relationships between large and small companies,

eements which reduce competition and disc

n that keeps it free. It is competition that keeps it growing and developing. The truth

es at artificially high levels and reduces consumption which, with lower prices, would rise and support larger production and higher employment. Monopoly, not being subject to competitive pressure, is slow to take advantage of techni

tices by the vigilant enforcement of regulatory legislation. The program will be designed to have a maximu

enterprises in every way. The deferred demand of the war years and the large accumulations of liquid assets provide ample incentive for expansion. Equalizing of business opportunity, under full and free competit

by administration we must take specific steps to discourage the formation or the strengthening of competition-restricting business. We must have an over-all antimonopoly policy which can

competition, the Department of Commerce has a particularly important role. That is why I have r

, especially for small enterprises; and strengthening of basic statistics on business operations, both by industries and by regions. To make new inventions and discoveries available more promptly to all businesses, small and large,

tion will take the leadership in assuring adequate financing for small enterprises which cannot secure funds from other sources. Most of the funds should and will be provided by private lenders; but

inimu

for the output of our mills, farms, and factories, which we have demonstrated during the war years that we can produce. One of the basic steps which the Congress can take to establish a high level of

bstandard wages provide only a substandard market for the goo

weeks--clearly a wholly inadequate budget for an American family. I am in full accord with the proposal now pending in the Congress that the statutory minimum be raised immediately to 65 cents an hour, with further increases to 70 cents after one

ases in recent years, it is little more than a 10-cent increase over the present legal minimum. In fact, if any large number of workers earn less than this amount, we will find it impossible to maintain the l

feasible without involving serious price adj

65 cents an hour. Because wages in most industries have risen during the war, this is abou

living is by no means limited to those workers who happen to be covered by the act as it now stands. It is particularly vital at this pe

a matter of simple equity to workers, and it will prove not only

cultural

t is the lowest in 30 years. Farmers' savings are the largest in history. Our agricultural plant is in much better condition than aft

will be supplemented by a high level of exports and foreign relief shipments. It is currently estimated t

ate future, and for at least the next 12 months they are expected to yield a net

past. Agriculture itself is moving confidently ahead, planning for another year of big pro

ally was planted in 1945. Agriculture is prepared to demonstrate that it can make

he surrender of Japan, civilian food consumption has risen still further. By the end of 1945 the amount of the increase in food consumption was estimated to be as high as 15 percent over the prewar average. The record shows that the people of this country want and ne

esires of our own people will not be completely satisfied, at least until these nations have had an opportunity to harvest another crop. During the next few months the need for food in

ign outlets for our farm commodities. The chief dependence of the farm

h prices are supported will provide an opportunity for farmers individually to strengthen their position in changing over from a wartime to a peacetime basis of production. It will provide an opportunity for the Congress to review the needs of agriculture and make changes in national legislation where experience has shown change

to encourage an agricultural production pattern that is best fitted to the Nation's needs. To accomplish this second objective we shall have to take into consi

We can be certain of our capacity to produce food, but we have often failed to distribute it as well as we should and to see that our people can afford to buy it. The way t

ting adequate food at prices in line with their ability to buy. Therefore, we should have availabl

ch at noon. The Congress, of course, has recognized this need for a continuing school-lunch program and legislation to that effect has been introduced and hearings held. The plan contemplates the at

provide plenty of good food for every man, woman, and child in

urce dev

f the country. We have learned that proper conservation of our lands, including our forest

at are our basic resources, and how they should be used. We need to take, as soon a

prosecution of the war. Work was suspended on a number of flood control and reclamation projects and on the development of our national forests and par

eral funds, most of which will be repaid into the Treasury, the scourge of floods and drought can be curbed, water can be brough

Coulee and at Bonneville which played a mighty part in winning the war and which will found a great peacetime industry in the Northwest. The Tennessee Valley Authority will resume its peacetim

wer be given to farmers' cooperatives and public agencies. The public power program thus authorized must continue to be made effective by building the neces

culture, industry, and commerce. The employment opportunities thus

ublic

desirable to proceed only at a moderate rate, since demand for private construction will be abnormally high for some time. Our public works program should be timed to reach its peak after d

blic works planning in the fiscal year 1946. I strongly recommend

as will insure that each level of government makes its proper contribution to a balanced public construction program. Specifically, the Federal Government should aid State and local governments in planning their ow

rks projects, and recently made additional provision to continue these advances through the fiscal year

s and loans in several other fields, including construction of airports, hospital and health centers, housing, water pollution c

uld proceed without Federal assistance except in planning. This rule should be subject to

and administered in such a way that they are brought int

ted public works which is planned in advance and synchronized with business conditio

nal housi

he Congress that housing was high on the l

ess communities, affecting millions of fa

mmediate emergency and

ues has increased. Returning veterans often cannot find a satisfactory place for their families to live,

possible first chance at vacancies. It will require continuation of rent control in shortage areas as well as legislation to permit control of sales prices. It will require maximum co

he price of housin

the present dangers of inflation in home values will contin

ur veterans and other prospective home owners would be protected against a skyrocketing of home prices. The country would be protected from the extension of the present inflatio

ccumulated. The speed with which the Congress establishes the foundation for a permanent, long-range housing program will determine how effectively we grasp the immense opportunity to achieve our goal of decent housing and to make hou

rs of houses for which veterans will have preference. Additional price and wage adjustments will be made where necessary, and other steps will be taken to stimulate greater production of bottleneck items. I recommend consideration

ency measures is now being formulated for action. These will include steps in addition to t

sic principles for the kind of decisive, permanent le

rough extension of the successful system of insurance of housing investment; that research be undertaken to develop better and cheaper methods of building homes; that communities be assisted in appraising their housing needs; that we commence a program of Federal aid, with fair local participation, to sti

nal Housing Agency and give it authority and funds for much needed technical and economic research. It would provide additional stimulus for privately financed housing construction. This stimulus consists of establishing a

able for the lowest income groups by continuing to provide direct subsidies for low-rent housing and rural housing. It would facili

On the contrary, it would lift us out of a potentially perpetual state of housing emergency. It would offer the best hope and pros

he best housed people in the world. I repeat that assertion, and

security

his program has supported the welfare and morale of a large part of our people by removing som

our system as it now exists. Benefits are in many cases inadequate; a great many persons are excluded from coverage; and provis

ultural and domestic workers, and employees of nonprofit organizations. Since many of these groups earn wages too low to per

riod, compensation payments to the unemployed. Again I urge the Congress to enact legislation liberalizing unemployment compensation benefits and extending the coverage. Providing for the sustained consu

corrected. This is shocking evidence that large sections of the population are at substandard levels of health. The need for a program that will give everyon

are which I have recommended is expected eventually to require amounts equivalent to 4 percent of earnings up to $3,600 a year, which is about the average of present expenditures by individuals for medical care. The pooling of medical costs, under a plan which permits each individual to make a free choice of d

ized. Provision should be made for extending coverage credit to veterans for the period of their service in the armed forces. In the financial provisions we must reconcile the act

Educ

ssential to provide adequate elementary and secondary schools everywhere, and additional educational opportunities for large numbers of people beyond the secondary level. Accordingly, I repeat the proposal of last year's Budget Message that the Federal Government provide financial aid to assist the States in assuring more nearly equal op

ble for State and local governments and for individuals to support higher and more nearly adequate expenditu

ional institutions. In view of current arrears in the construction of educational facilities, I believe that legislation to authorize grants for edu

ontinue its historic role of leadership and advice and, for the purpose of equalizing educational opportun

Government

n reduced by more than 500,000 from the total of approximately 2,900,000 employed in the final months of the war. I expect that by next June we shall have made a further reduction of equal magnit

complicated and costs have been increased by a heavy turn-over in the remaining personnel--particularly by the loss of some of our best administrators. Thousands of war veterans have been reinstated or newly

eased rates of pay which had become effective July 1. Further adjustments to compensate for increased living costs are required. Moreover, we have long needed a general upward revision of Fede

all Federal employees in all branches of the Government. The only exception I would make is in the case of workers whose pay rates are established by wage boards; a blanket adjustment would destroy the system by which their

ealth and safety of Federal employees, for their coverage under a system of unemployment compensati

ar possessions, and th

I asked the Congress last October to provide a means by which the people of Puerto Rico might choose their form of government and ultimate status with respect to the United States. I urge, too, that the Congress promptly accede to the wishes of the people of Hawaii that the Terr

ete, as promptly and as generously as may be possible, legislation which will aid economic rehabilitation for the Philippines. This will be not only a just acknowledgment of the loyalty of the people of the Philippines, but it will h

hould move toward a greater measure of local self-government consistent with the constitutional status of the District. We should take ade

Claim Your Bonus at the APP

Open